The seriousness of global air-pollution, climate, and energy-security problems requires a massive, virtually immediate transformation of the world’s energy infrastructure to 100% clean energy producing zero emissions. In the actual energy scenario, with about 80% of the energy consumption relying on coal power plants, each year 4-7 million people die prematurely and hundreds of millions more become ill from air pollution (source). Avoiding 1.5 C warming since preindustrial times requires at least an 80% conversion of the energy infrastructure to zero-emitting energy by 2030 and 100% by 2050.
However the multiple actors at play in this transition, the resources needed, and the wideness of fields involved are such that it is almost impossible to forecast what the final solution could be and how the future energy mix/market will look.
By 2040, the world’s power-generating capacity mix will have transformed: from today’s system composed of two-thirds fossil fuels to one with 56% from zero-emission energy sources. Renewables will command just under 60% of the 9,786 GW of new generating capacity installed over the next 25 years, and two-thirds of the $12.2 trillion of investment.
World wide demand decrease due to increase of energy efficiency and the spread of a common culture devoted to a shift towards a more environmentally friendly behavior will help this transition but this will not be enough.
It will require around $370bn of investment a year, or 80% of investment in power capacity worldwide. In total, developing countries will build nearly three times as much new capacity as developed nations, at 7,460GW of which around half will be renewables.
Several scenarios has been assessed in order to model the transition locally for national realities as well as world wide, under an economical, political, social and technical point of view.
Live or die, it is now time for you to make the choice.
This site provides a neutral discussion surrounding the controversy of a 100% renewable energy scenario, by comparing interviews with advocates and opponents of the scenario.The discussion is based mainly on the French energy system, and breifly touches on the EU and worldwide perspectives.
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Ieaorg. 2017. Ieaorg. [Online]. [4 July 2017]. Available from: https://www.iea.org/